← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 39% | 2.46 |
| Watford win | 31% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.58 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 39' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 294.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1436.13 | 1426.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 62.07 | 27.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 26.96 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 157.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.19 |