← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 57% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Norwich win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Norwich −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 15' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jovon Makama · Norwich |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mathias Kvistgaarden · Norwich |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 44' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 539.00 |
| 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1653.95 | 1359.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.07 | -36.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.60 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.73 | -1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 215.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.51 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.21 |