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Coventry 3–2 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrew Kitchen, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win50%1.96
Draw27%3.56
West Brom win23%4.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom −0.550%1.93
Coventry −0.550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.95
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Aune Selland Heggebø · West Brom
28'🟨Victor Torp · Coventry
31'🟨Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry
31'🟨Jayson Molumby · West Brom
32'⚽Aune Selland Heggebø · West Brom
41'⚽Josh Eccles · Coventry
49'🟨Jayson Molumby · West Brom
49'🟥Jayson Molumby · West Brom
56'⚽Ellis Simms · Coventry
61'⚽Victor Torp · Coventry
69'🟨Nathaniel Phillips

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
24Shots7
11On target5
8Corners1
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.14
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.55
cards avg (last 5)2.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCoventry Building Society Arena
· West Brom
coach days386.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.55
elo1610.031456.27
elo momentum (last 5)22.34-20.06
eye test v10.54-0.30
eye trend v10.010.09
first sub minute (last 10)62.7064.50
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.820.68
league points34.0021.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)52.8053.40
rest days13.9013.90
scorer concentration0.240.38
season ppg2.271.40
shot diff avg (last 5)4.202.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.6014.20
skill v10.350.09
solidity v1-0.120.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
squad age—26.39
state index0.81-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.380.07
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.30
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
travel km—32.40
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.281.31
xg for avg (last 5)1.641.04