← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Martin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 37% | 2.56 |
| Charlton win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Charlton +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 16' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Caspar Jander · Southampton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tyreece Campbell · Charlton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Greg Docherty · Charlton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Rankin-Costello · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 12 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days |
| 660.00 |
| 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1600.96 | 1377.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.58 | -0.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| league points | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.03 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 118.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.63 |