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Charlton 1–5 Southampton

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Martin, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Southampton win37%2.56
Charlton win34%2.84
Draw28%3.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Southampton +053%1.85
Charlton +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Ryan Manning · Southampton
16'⚽Adam Armstrong · Southampton
20'⚽Caspar Jander · Southampton
22'⚽Finn Azaz · Southampton
43'⚽Finn Azaz · Southampton
45'⚽Lloyd Jones · Charlton
60'🟨Tyreece Campbell · Charlton
61'🟨Greg Docherty · Charlton
75'🟨Kayne Ramsay · Charlton
77'🟨Joe Rankin-Costello · Charlton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score5
12Shots23
2On target8
3Corners4
15Fouls6
4Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharltonSouthampton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.560.69
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Valley
coach days
660.00
144.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.061.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.44
elo1600.961377.40
elo momentum (last 5)1.58-0.69
eye test v10.090.30
eye trend v1-0.17-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.4058.20
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.780.58
league points23.0018.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)43.6055.40
rest days13.9013.90
scorer concentration0.290.27
season ppg1.531.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.40
skill v1-0.700.66
solidity v10.23-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
squad age—26.03
state index0.34-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.810.51
threat rate (last 10)0.300.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
travel km—118.60
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.551.78
xg for avg (last 5)1.251.63