← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Birmingham win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Dael Fry · Middlesbrough |
| 29' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Beadle · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1488.90 | 1667.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.03 | -8.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 28.61 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.88 |