← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 47% | 2.01 |
| Derby win | 27% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn |
| 19' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 45' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 99.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1453.47 | 1423.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.81 | 42.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.19 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 113.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.19 |