← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 48% | 1.96 |
| Bristol City win | 27% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Watford −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marc Bola · Watford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jeremy Petris · Watford |
| 29' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 98.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1425.80 | 1503.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.05 | -4.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.96 | — |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.10 |