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Portsmouth 0–0 Wrexham

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Nov 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win35%2.65
Portsmouth win35%2.65
Draw30%3.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham +050%1.93
Portsmouth +050%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth
41'🟨Ben Sheaf · Wrexham
69'🟨Issa Kaboré · Wrexham
73'🟨Colby Bishop · Portsmouth
73'🟨Dan Scarr · Wrexham
90'🟨Josh Murphy · Portsmouth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots8
7On target3
10Corners3
9Fouls8
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPortsmouthWrexham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.580.70
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFratton Park
coach days1039.001588.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.443.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.380.45
elo1435.401640.91
elo momentum (last 5)-13.25-5.12
eye test v1-1.11-0.12
eye trend v10.08-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.6060.00
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.600.74
league points13.0017.00
league rank21.0016.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8042.20
rest days4.215.00
scorer concentration0.300.31
season ppg1.001.31
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.40
skill v1-0.55-0.56
solidity v1-0.610.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.40
squad age—30.74
state index-0.820.26
sterile dominance v10.19-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.790.89
xg for avg (last 5)0.811.04