← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Leigh Doughty, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Oxford win | 31% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stoke +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 32' | ⚽ | Steven N'Zonzi · Stoke |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 48' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 59' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Stoke |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 83' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days |
| 95.00 |
| 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1451.64 | 1489.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.43 | 33.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.95 |