← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Middlesbrough win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Ayew · Leicester |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Leicester |
| 67' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 69' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patson Daka · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alfie Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1473.22 | 1487.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.94 | -11.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 217.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.01 |