← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: David Webb, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 57% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Watford win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marc Bola · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 2 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1434.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1466.78 | 1422.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.11 | 26.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 26.96 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 115.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.59 |