← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Martin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Hull win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Hull −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 50' | ⚽ | Joel Ndala · Hull |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
| 85' | 🟨 | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 276.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1414.00 | 1460.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.29 | 55.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 28.55 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 116.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.19 |