← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Millwall win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 49' | ⚽ | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 521.00 | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1665.21 | 1645.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.80 | 48.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.56 |