← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: John Busby, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Watford win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Middlesbrough +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kévin Keben Biakolo · Watford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 92.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1403.19 | 1507.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.51 | 5.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 0.91 |