← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Bristol City win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 7' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 22' | ⚽ | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 25' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · Stoke |
| 47' | ⚽ | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 67' | ⚽ | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tatsuki Seko · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 304.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1610.84 | 1675.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.29 | 12.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.31 |