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Sheffield United 1–3 Derby

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Salisbury, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win52%1.79
Draw27%3.50
Derby win21%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United −0.552%1.85
Derby −0.548%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Carlton Morris · Derby
35'🟨Craig Forsyth · Derby
46'⚽Carlton Morris · Derby
62'🟨Djibril Soumaré · Sheffield United
63'⚽ (pen)Carlton Morris · Derby
69'🟨Ben Mee · Sheffield United
73'⚽Callum O'Hare · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots12
5On target4
9Corners4
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedDerby
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.680.75
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days701.00273.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.933.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1459.071393.81
elo momentum (last 5)-9.1415.91
eye test v10.17-0.49
eye trend v10.750.15
first sub minute (last 10)63.1059.60
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.670.82
league points9.0014.00
league rank22.0017.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4044.00
rest days7.837.04
scorer concentration0.380.27
season ppg0.751.17
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.60
skill v10.24-0.47
solidity v10.600.63
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.002.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age27.3424.90
state index-0.35-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.300.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
travel km—50.60
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.181.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.811.21