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Leicester 0–2 Blackburn

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leicester win54%1.71
Draw25%3.70
Blackburn win21%4.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn −0.7551%1.88
Leicester −0.7549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn
23'🟨Axel Henriksson · Blackburn
63'⚽Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots9
1On target5
7Corners4
9Fouls12
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeicesterBlackburn
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKing Power Stadium
coach days92.0092.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.06
corner diff avg (last 5)5.802.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)8.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.842.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.18
dominance (last 5)0.630.59
elo1493.761419.17
elo momentum (last 5)-2.82-28.87
eye test v10.140.01
eye trend v10.120.15
first sub minute (last 10)52.8060.30
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.760.64
league points17.0010.00
league rank12.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)57.2049.60
rest days6.946.94
scorer concentration0.250.30
season ppg1.420.91
shot diff avg (last 5)6.804.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.4015.60
skill v10.74-0.15
solidity v10.110.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age26.68—
state index-0.01-0.54
sterile dominance v10.33-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.32
threat rate (last 5)0.290.32
travel km—152.50
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.330.99
xg for avg (last 5)1.301.52