← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 2.60 |
| Millwall win | 32% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.25 | 54% | 1.88 |
| Leicester +0.25 | 46% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 44' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 328.00 |
| 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1505.81 | 1501.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.58 | 6.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.33 |