← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Martin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.65 |
| Wrexham win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Wrexham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matty James · Wrexham |
| 80' | ⚽ | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Scarr · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 85.00 | 1577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1505.31 | 1635.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.22 | -20.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 30.74 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.98 |