← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 37% | 2.65 |
| QPR win | 35% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0 | 51% | 2.00 |
| QPR +0 | 49% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jonathan Varane · QPR |
| 71' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · QPR |
| 75' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 266.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1382.99 | 1471.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.69 | 12.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.86 | — |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 176.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.34 |