← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: James Linington, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Birmingham win | 29% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.75 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 116.00 | 511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1667.38 | 1661.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | -24.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 28.61 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.53 |