← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 40% | 2.39 |
| Blackburn win | 31% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.77 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Joshua Quarshie · Southampton |
| 20' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn |
| 23' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Southampton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Scott Wharton · Blackburn |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sondre Tronstad · Blackburn |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ryan Alebiosu · Blackburn |
| 86' | ⚽ | Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟥 | Welington · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 85.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1412.00 | 1370.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.86 | 12.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.08 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 322.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.84 |