← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 35% | 2.78 |
| Portsmouth win | 34% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Portsmouth +0 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Makenzie Kirk · Portsmouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 61' | 🟨 | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Hayden Matthews · Stoke |
| 87' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 1028.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1453.50 | 1459.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.55 | 3.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 255.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.98 |