← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Dean Whitestone, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 63% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.64 |
| Watford win | 17% | 6.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −1 | 52% | 2.00 |
| Watford −1 | 48% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry |
| 7' | ⚽ | Jamie Allen · Coventry |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
| 44' | 🟥 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luke Woolfenden · Coventry |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · Coventry |
| 85' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 358.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1595.81 | 1409.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 72.45 | 25.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.96 |
| state index | 1.39 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 116.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.86 |