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Wrexham 1–0 Oxford

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win48%2.00
Draw27%3.56
Oxford win25%3.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford −0.552%1.89
Wrexham −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Nathan Broadhead · Wrexham
37'🟨Dominic Hyam · Wrexham
65'🟨Siriki Dembélé · Oxford
67'🟥Callum Doyle · Wrexham
83'🟨Kieffer Moore · Wrexham
90'🟨Sam Smith · Wrexham

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots6
6On target2
6Corners3
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWrexhamOxford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRacecourse Ground
coach days1574.0082.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-5.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.608.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.470.57
elo1631.591445.17
elo momentum (last 5)-18.949.18
eye test v1-0.10-0.03
eye trend v1-0.45-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)59.9062.90
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.720.69
league points10.009.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)42.2046.60
rest days4.204.30
scorer concentration0.270.33
season ppg1.000.90
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4015.00
skill v1-0.41-0.35
solidity v10.580.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age30.74—
state index-0.12-0.06
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.90
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.230.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.201.07
xg for avg (last 5)1.091.36