← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Southampton win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Southampton +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 57' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 70' | 🟨 | Radek Vitek · Bristol City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Fellows · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 112.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 0.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1516.80 | 1378.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.11 | 8.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 1.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.56 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.62 |