← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: James Linington, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Stoke win | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 15' | 🟨 | Thierno Ballo · Millwall |
| 21' | ⚽ | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 37' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 324.00 |
| 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1494.36 | 1470.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.07 | 6.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 70.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.11 |