← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 47% | 2.11 |
| Hull win | 27% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Hull +0.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Leicester |
| 6' | ⚽ | Liam Millar · Hull |
| 31' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 52' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 67' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Leicester |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 112.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1431.72 | 1512.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.18 | 16.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 26.51 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 135.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.28 |