← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 39% | 2.58 |
| Norwich win | 32% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.25 | 46% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.83 |
| Over | 45% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 55' | ⚽ | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 13 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 262.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1374.06 | 1396.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.50 | -33.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 29.13 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 188.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.26 |