← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Bramall, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Wrexham win | 27% | 3.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Wrexham −0.25 | 47% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 290.00 | 1570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1456.93 | 1645.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.39 | -31.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 30.74 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.37 |