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Norwich 0–1 Bristol City

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win37%2.58
Bristol City win35%2.73
Draw28%3.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich +051%1.89
Bristol City +049%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Jakov Medić · Norwich
24'🟨Zak Vyner · Bristol City
37'🟨Ross McCrorie · Bristol City
59'🟨Adam Randell · Bristol City
73'⚽Mark Sykes · Bristol City
89'🟨Pelle Mattsson · Norwich

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots21
4On target6
3Corners9
11Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichBristol City
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
box share (last 5)0.750.66
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarrow Road
coach days78.00109.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.55
elo1405.521508.02
elo momentum (last 5)-20.47-25.79
eye test v1-0.410.15
eye trend v10.100.27
first sub minute (last 10)57.7056.20
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.680.67
league points8.0013.00
league rank21.0013.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0077.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2052.40
rest days13.1314.00
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg0.891.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.80
skill v1-0.130.44
solidity v1-1.080.06
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
squad age29.13—
state index-0.96-0.25
sterile dominance v10.35-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.200.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.921.32
xg for avg (last 5)1.181.92