← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Hull win | 21% | 4.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.75 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Robinson · Hull |
| 16' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 20' | 🟨 | Babajide David Akintola · Hull |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 45' | ⚽ | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 54' | 🟨 | James Beadle · Birmingham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 59' | 🟥 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ivor Pandur · Hull |
| 82' | 🟨 | John Egan · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enis Destan · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 29 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 504.00 |
| 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1675.30 | 1414.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.12 | 14.58 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 27.56 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 173.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.37 |