β EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Sat, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 48% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 |
| Swansea win | 25% | 3.86 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea β0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Southampton β0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | π¨ | Marko Stamenic Β· Swansea |
| 43' | π¨ | Ben Cabango Β· Swansea |
| 50' | π¨ | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 90' | π¨ | Jay Fulton Β· Swansea |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 109.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1377.43 | 1460.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.34 | -13.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| travel km | β | 195.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.21 |