← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 36% | 2.71 |
| Millwall win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Millwall +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 36' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR |
| 56' | 🟨 | Thierno Ballo · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rumarn Burrell · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| 109.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1471.29 | 1482.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.05 | 8.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.94 |