← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Derby win | 33% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Derby +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jack Currie · Oxford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Will Vaulks · Oxford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 78.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1438.43 | 1380.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | 15.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.89 |