← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 40% | 2.56 |
| Middlesbrough win | 32% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Ipswich +0.25 | 46% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 42' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Cédric Kipré · Middlesbrough |
| 55' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dara O'Shea · Ipswich |
| 78' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mamadou Kaly Sene · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 77.00 | 1416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1488.93 | 1456.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.40 | 41.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 69.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.21 | 12.33 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 27.21 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 321.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.99 |