← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 61% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.29 |
| Norwich win | 16% | 6.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −1 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Ipswich −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Cédric Kipré · Ipswich |
| 35' | ⚽ | Oscar Schwartau · Norwich |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Norwich |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pelle Mattsson · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1404.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1672.95 | 1585.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.43 | 1.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.68 | 3.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 1.07 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 64.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.51 |