← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 51% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
| Oxford win | 22% | 4.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oxford −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Max Alleyne · Oxford |
| 5' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kévin Keben Biakolo · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Oxford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Currie · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 64.00 |
| 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1395.98 | 1448.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.60 | 13.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | — |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.27 |