← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Leicester win | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Leicester +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Adam Idah · Swansea |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 77' | ⚽ | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Swansea |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 95.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1477.11 | 1499.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.20 | 25.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 26.54 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 219.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.93 |