← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 40% | 2.46 |
| Portsmouth win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Middlesbrough |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 83' | 🟨 | Josef Bursik · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 1007.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1448.65 | 1498.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.86 | 10.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 420.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.89 |