← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tim Robinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 36% | 2.74 |
| Millwall win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Millwall +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.57 |
| Over | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · West Brom |
| 18' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 30' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 56' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 72' | ⚽ | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1467.69 | 1483.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.43 | -2.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.46 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.06 |