← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Langford, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
| Derby win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.25 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Derby +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 15' | 🟨 | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 33' | 🟨 | Max Johnston · Derby |
| 40' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · Derby |
| 85' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 245.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1382.71 | 1375.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.30 | 10.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 223.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.39 |