← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edward Duckworth, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 51% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| QPR win | 23% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 51% | 2.00 |
| QPR −0.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 32' | ⚽ | Emil Riis · Bristol City |
| 48' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 51' | 🟨 | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 66' | ⚽ | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 73' | 🟨 | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 84' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robert Atkinson · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yu Hirakawa · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1661.36 | 1596.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.17 | 38.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 30.93 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.11 |