← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Stoke win | 32% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Ryan Alebiosu · Blackburn |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tomáš Rigo · Stoke |
| 49' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 82' | ⚽ | Augustus Kargbo · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 64.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1574.23 | 1602.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.74 | -6.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 25.07 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 85.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.12 |