← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Wrexham win | 32% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 55% | 1.90 |
| Wrexham +0 | 45% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | George Dobson · Wrexham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Patrick Roberts · Birmingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lewis Koumas · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.09 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days | 1555.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1597.26 | 1666.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.31 | -37.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 28.61 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.12 |