← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 45% | 2.11 |
| Oxford win | 27% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oxford −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 74' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Oxford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rumarn Burrell · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| 92.00 |
| 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1459.97 | 1446.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.36 | 8.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.93 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.28 |