← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 41% | 2.36 |
| Watford win | 30% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Max Alleyne · Watford |
| 5' | ⚽ | Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth |
| 13' | 🟨 | Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jeremy Petris · Watford |
| 46' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Rocco Vata · Watford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Egil Selvik · Watford |
| 79' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1451.95 | 1392.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.46 | -6.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 105.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.06 |