← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 47% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| Millwall win | 25% | 3.78 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Coventry +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 29' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 42' | 🟨 | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 46' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 66' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 85' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · Coventry |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kaine Kesler-Hayden · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 304.00 | 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1486.43 | 1546.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.96 | 31.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 2.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.85 |