← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Derby win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Derby +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | James Bree · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 71' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 79' | ⚽ | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 241.00 | 607.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1377.90 | 1620.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.54 | -27.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -1.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 188.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.09 |