← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
| Wrexham win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leicester −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Leicester |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Wrexham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 60.00 | 1552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1496.58 | 1648.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.30 | -24.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.99 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 30.74 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.35 |